Predictions for 2007

[oldetowne]

Here are some unscientific predictions for the new year. I'd be curious to hear what others think.

1. It WILL snow.

2. The Town Hall-Library renovation will not be completed.

3. The town will acquire the Wilkos property with no plans whatsoever about what to do with it after they buy it.

4. The Redevelopment Agency will recommend taking the Fun Zone by eminent domain. Voters will defeat the proposal at a referendum.

5. During the spring there will be a huge push to get the lights installed on Cottone Field during the summer. It will only get done when the town "finds" some money and the state kicks in a grant.

6. The WHS football team will win one game, and that one will be an away game during the day.

7. The Democrats will sweep to victory again with the lowest voter turnout in recent history. Mayor Adil's tenure will end in December.

8. The newly hired superintendent of schools will come on board at a salary higher than that ever paid to any town employee.

9. The 2007-2008 budget will stick the average homeowner with a 9% property tax increase.

10. The MDC will conclude that the proposed improvements will cost closer to $2 billion and, therefore, they will have to raise the salaries of their top staff accordingly.

[standish]

Here are some unscientific predictions for the new year. I'd be curious to hear what others think.

1. It WILL snow.
Many times.

3. The town will acquire the Wilkos property with no plans whatsoever about what to do with it after they buy it.
Somehow, a well-connected developer will save the day with an inappropriate development.

4. The Redevelopment Agency will recommend taking the Fun Zone by eminent domain. Voters will defeat the proposal at a referendum.
It won't go to referendum. Only the Council needs to decide whether the "taking" is appropriate (see above developer). Unlike "The Interchange Zone" in the Meadows, there isn't sufficient interest to circulate a petition that overrides Council (until it's residents' own property that's taken). Eminent Domain will become a commonly used tool before it's applied to controversial takings (like the frog in the pot with slowly warming water).

5. During the spring there will be a huge push to get the lights installed on Cottone Field during the summer. It will only get done when the town "finds" some money and the state kicks in a grant.
The town won't have to spend a penny on the lights: The "boosters" will fund it all, according the promises made (...ah, sarcasm, which Oldetowne uses so well).

7. The Democrats will sweep to victory again with the lowest voter turnout in recent history. Mayor Adil's tenure will end in December.
??

8. The newly hired superintendent of schools will come on board at a salary higher than that ever paid to any town employee.
...to-date.

9. The 2007-2008 budget will stick the average homeowner with a 9% property tax increase.
Only single-digit? Ah, progress.

10. The MDC will conclude that the proposed improvements will cost closer to $2 billion and, therefore, they will have to raise the salaries of their top staff accordingly.
In fact, the higher the cost overrides, the higher the salaries, according the logic both the MDC board and The Courant employ.

[cruzrt]

Tax increase will be small in 2007, only because it's an election year. Just wait till 08!!!!. Town Hall Renovation and Library Renovation will last for years to come. Are the workers invisible, or maybe they work the 3rd shift - never see anybody doing anything. The fabled lights committee (O'Connor and his boosters) don't have any money, they will use Morin and Doyle to raid the state Bond Commission. Adil's term as Mayor will make Morin look like a genius by comparison.

[oldetowne]

Cruzrt - I agree that the tax increase will be RELATIVELY small, compared to what was jammed down our throats over the past three years. However, when you factor in (1) contractual increases in union contracts, (2) debt service on all of the bonded projects, and (3) the probable anemic growth in the grand list, we are locked into an increase of about 7% before there's any discussion of services. Add to that an increase in insurance and energy costs and you could easily reach 9% with absolutely no increase in services or personnel.

One wild card that will bear watching is the GASB 45 requirement with respect to unfunded employee and retiree costs. The Council minutes don't put a figure on it, but the minutes of the Insurance Committee show the following from November 2006:

"Lisa Hanc**k discussed GASB 45 - (Post Employment Benefits other than Pension) and the actuarial results that were presented on Monday evening to the Shared Services Committee. She stated that Polly Moon, Mike Fortunato, Sey Adil and Chris Monroe were able to be in attendance to hear about the estimated future costs to the Town resulting from the evaluation. Depending on the funding method of the liability the Town could end up with a liability between $50 million and $90 million. The current retirement benefits that are received by employees have a significant cost impact in the future. The Town Manager and Superintendent have been trying to negotiate union contracts in a way to help reduce this future cost, but this will take quite some time and will only affect future employees that are hired. Lisa Hanc**k requested that the Committee give thought to this issue and make future recommendations that they may have for savings." (Her name was automatically modified to "Hanthingy" by this site.)

I believe that towns our size are required to show the unfunded liability on their financial statements starting in the year ending 6/30/2008. It doesn't mean that the entire amount has to be budgeted and raised through taxes (which would essentially double the property tax rate) - it does mean that the town either has to start funding a reserve to cover this constantly growing expense or risk having its bond rating take a hit if they fail to do so.

Follow this link for more info - www.ccm-ct.org/advocacy/2006-2007/070706a.html

[ThinkingMama]

Thank you for a very informative posting.

Do you think there will be a referendum on renovations to the high school and Hanmer school this fall?

[SyZyGy]

ot, good post!
some really ballsy predictions!
dis/agree with #7 (The Democrats will sweep to victory again with the lowest voter turnout in recent history. Mayor Adil's tenure will end in December.):

expect AA's tenure to end before December*

Sy
*parallel to new TV serial:
"Wethersfield DIRT"

[Jubashero]

My prediction: P. Montinieri will not abstain from any BOE-related matters though views expressed by J. Montinieri, as she chastised Kitch about campaign signs in the past election seem to indicate that the Montinieri household has but one viewpoint.

[SyZyGy]

juba, these too are good points.
There will be no "strange"-ness in the politics of these two bed'fellows'. What are the chances that details of their respective executive meetings will not be shared. (Considering the current political consanguinity of the Council and Board, what difference would it make, other than legally and ethically? [/color]At least the Stanziale's sit on the same Board.)

[oldetowne]

Sy - "expect AA's tenure to end before December".... I've heard plenty of dirt over the years, but I had always assumed it was just that. With no newspaper or television coverage of anything other than "happy events", I doubt that even the most foul dirt would get anyone's attention in this town.

[SyZyGy]

oldetowne said:

Sy - "expect AA's tenure to end before December".... I've heard plenty of dirt over the years, but I had always assumed it was just that. With no newspaper or television coverage of anything other than "happy events", I doubt that even the most foul dirt would get anyone's attention in this town.

OT, What better way to start another week, on an atypically rainy Winter morning in CT, than to be enlivened by good oldetowne humor. Thanks! I needed that!! Sy

[SyZyGy]

A Courant editorial caught my eye and prodded my mind. How does a politician, federal, state or even local defuse a potentially incendiary political event (e.g. a fall after the pride) that might otherwise terminate (with prejudice) an otherwise real or desired career in politics?

Courant 1/8/2007 January 8 2007

Barack Obama's Candor

Confessions of illegal drug use in high school and college, contained in a memoir published more than a decade ago, would hardly raise an eyebrow were it not

for the fact that the author, Barack Obama, is a likely presidential contender. Even so, the admissions seem to present a surprisingly small liability.

Mr. Obama's confessions in "Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance" were published 11 years ago, shortly after his graduation from Harvard law school. Born of a white woman from Kansas and a black father (who returned to his native Kenya when his son was 2), Mr. Obama was raised by his mother and her family. His recollections of drug use are cast in the context of a youthful struggle to reconcile that dual heritage. "Junkie. Pothead. That's where I'd been headed: the final, fatal role of the young would-be black man," Mr. Obama writes. "I got high [to] push questions of who I was out of my mind." Mr. Obama, 45, pushed in other ways, too. After graduating from Columbia University, he worked in Chicago as a community organizer. At Harvard Law, he became the first black person to be elected editor of the law review. A civil rights attorney, he served for seven years in the Illinois state Senate until his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004. He's also married and has two young daughters. His latest book is a best seller.

Impressive accomplishments all. Instead of using them as a firewall against his youthful indiscretions, however, Mr. Obama embraces the whole story. In his race for the U.S. Senate two years ago, Mr. Obama said his story of drug use is important for "young people who are already in circumstances that are far more difficult than mine to know that you can make mistakes and still recover."

There's a strategy of damage control that says it's better to disclose than to be exposed. The idea is that a transgression's political consequences can be lessened with deftly applied doses of honesty. Mr. Obama's admissions, written before he contemplated life on the national stage, appear to be less calculation than straightforward statement.
www.courant.com

No one of Obama's notoriety resides in any seat on council, board or commission in our little river city. But, ego knows no geopolitical border. Some here may see Obama's approach as their own salvation. Besides, as it was said, 'it's better to disclose than to be exposed.'

A 2007 prediction: a "disclosure" before an exposure from a dais in town.

[oldetowne]

Such a move would require a higher level of political acumen and a greater degree of humility than I have ever seen in any of our local political leaders.

[god]

Those who hide behind shroud of anonymity shall coast through existence unnoticed and unfulfilled.

Those who continue to selflessly serve the good of all mankind shall continue to suffer for the sins of others.

I proclaim these predictions to be true.

I have spoken!

[oldetowne]

thinkingmama said:

Thank you for a very informative posting.

Do you think there will be a referendum on renovations to the high school and Hanmer school this fall?

No. That's probably too much for people to swallow in a town election year, coming on the heels of last fall's open space and MDC bonding, the prior year's roads and sidewalks and town hall addition money, .... We have to digest the start of the debt service on some of those projects as well as whatever hit we have to take because of GASB 45. It also doesn't appear that those projects have been thought through very well yet. Unless architects are engaged in the next two months, those look like 2008 referenda.

Another project to keep your eye on is a proposed switch of the uses of the Griswold Road firehouse and the ambulance building.

[god]

It is not wise to smite me - I am a powerful and vengeful deity!

Vengeance sayeth I........